I'm confused

Story.

PARIS - France said outright for the first time Wednesday that North Korea’s proclaimed nuclear test produced such a small blast that it must have failed, and analysts warned such challenging talk could lead Pyongyang to try again. . .

Such speculation about a dud test could be read as a challenge by Kim Jong Il, the North’s reclusive leader, to consider carrying out a second test to prove naysayers wrong, analysts said.

“The reaction could be exactly to carry out another explosion, to make sure it succeeds,” said Georges Le Guelte, a nuclear expert at France’s Institute for International and Strategic Research.

I don't understand the point of the "analysts." Are they suggesting that Western governments should not tell the truth (i.e., engage in "challenging talk") and instead should lie to their citizens and pretend that the test was successful simply because Kim Jung-Il is a lunatic?